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Reference case without minimum design standards

Brief characterisation: This pathway builds on the assumption that the current policy framework as given by the RES Directive (2009/28/EC) will be prolonged for the period up to 2030, meaning (inter alia) that national RES targets for 2030 will be established. Similar assumptions are consequently made for RES support – i.e. a continuation of strengthened national RES policies until 2030 which will be further optimised in the future with regard to their effectiveness and efficiency. In particular the further fine-tuning of national support schemes will require in case of both (premium) feed-in tariff and quota systems a technology-specification of RES support.

Since no sort of harmonisation is assumed to be in place under this reference variant, MSs have the freedom to decide on both the type of support scheme that they apply as well as its design elements. Within the modelling exercise, in order to provide a contrast to the other reference case of minimum harmonisation (path 7d) a “national perspective” is researched here where MSs primarily aim for a pure domestic RES target fulfilment and, consequently, only “limited cooperation” 1 is expected to arise from that. RES cooperation finally affects however the overall cost allocation across the EU – i.e. the ultimate height of support expenditures for RES at country level is defined by national RES deployment and the support expenditures related to that, and, on top of that, the additional revenues (for exporting countries) or additional expenditures (for importing countries) related to RES cooperation.


 

Figure 7 - 1.   Technology-specific breakdown of RES-E generation from new installations (2021 to 2030) at EU-27 level in the year 2030, indicating deployment in absolute terms (left) and the change compared to reference (right) (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF))

Figure 7 - 2.   Country-specific breakdown of RES and RES-E generation from new installations (2021 to 2030) in the year 2030, indicating RES(-E) deployment as share in corresponding demand (i.e. gross final energy demand for RES total, and gross electricity demand for RES-E) (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF))

 

Figure 7 - 3.   Indicators on cost/expenditures and benefits of new RES(-E) installations (2021 to 2030), expressing yearly average (2021 to 2030) monetary values at EU-27 level in absolute terms (left) and the change compared to reference (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF))

Figure 7 - 4.   Country-specific breakdown of yearly average (2021 to 2030) capital expenditures in new RES and RES-E installations (2021 to 2030), expressing investments as share of (country-specific) GDP (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF)

Figure 7 - 5.   Country-specific breakdown of yearly average (2021 to 2030) support expenditures for RES total and RES-E, expressing expenditures as share of (country-specific) GDP (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF))

Figure 7 - 6.   Yearly average (2021 to 2030) monetary transfers between Member States related to the support for RES, expressing additional expenditures (+) or income (-) as share of (country-specific) GDP (for the assessed policy pathway 7 (REF))

Note: Additional expenditure or income stems from the underlying cost allocation under a full or medium harmonisation of RES support, or they refer to RES cooperation in the case of soft, minimum or no harmonisation, respectively.

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1 Within the corresponding model-based assessment the assumption is taken that in the case of “limited cooperation / National perspective” the use of cooperation mechanisms as agreed in the RES Directive is reduced to necessary minimum: For the exceptional case that a MS would not possess sufficient RES potentials, cooperation mechanisms would serve as a complementary option. Additionally, if a MS possesses barely sufficient RES potentials, but their exploitation would cause significantly higher support expenditures compared to the EU average, cooperation would serve as complementary tool to assure target achievement.

General contact for more infomation: resch@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
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